The ongoing impact of climate change is dramatically altering the ecosystems of boreal forests, particularly in Alaska, where rising temperatures and drier conditions are sparking long-term ecological changes. These shifts are not only triggering more frequent wildfires and pest outbreaks but are also affecting the delicate balance of plant life, especially deciduous shrubs and trees. One of the key species under threat is the aspen tree, which is now facing severe damage due to a rapid increase in the population of the aspen leaf miner (Phyllocnistis populiella). To better understand this, a team of researchers from the University of Alaska at Fairbanks (UAF) are using ACCESS allocations on Stampede3 at the Texas Advanced Computing Center (TACC).

“Since 2000, unusually high populations of the aspen leaf miner have been recorded in interior Alaska, particularly at the Bonanza Creek Long Term Ecological Research site,” said Christopher Peterson, UAF postdoctoral researcher. “This tiny pest has a major impact on the region’s aspen trees, affecting their ability to photosynthesize, disrupting their water balance, and potentially contributing to increased tree mortality.” 

Peterson said that these effects, which threaten to diminish the overall productivity of the forest ecosystem, could have serious long-term consequences for the health of the region. Hence, he and his colleagues have been using Stampede3 to better understand how both biotic (living organisms) and abiotic (non-living environmental factors) contribute to the population dynamics of the aspen leaf miner and the subsequent damage to the aspen trees.

“UAF Professors Diane Wagner and Patricia Doak have been working on the aspen leaf miner project for over 17 years and our current research uses this long-term data to develop a mathematical model to predict the life cycle of the leaf miner and the factors that influence its population growth,” Peterson said. “Building these models is an iterative process that involves repeated cycles of  analysis, interpretation and revision – ACCESS allocations allow us to make rapid progress with this that would otherwise not be possible.”

Their study was presented at the 2024 Annual Meeting of the Ecological Society of America in Long Beach last month.

“By using process-based hierarchical Bayesian models, we analyzed long-term observational data to pinpoint how climate, tree traits and location affect the population of leaf miners,” Peterson said. “The models were fitted by using Stan, a powerful tool designed for complex data analysis, with support from Stampede3 at TACC.”

The findings from this research are expected to shed new light on how herbivores like the aspen leaf miner are affecting the resilience of boreal forests in the face of climate change. As the study continues to progress, Peterson said that their hope is to help inform strategies to mitigate the damage caused by pests and contribute to a broader understanding of how climate change is reshaping forest ecosystems.

Resource Provider Institution(s): Texas Advanced Computing Center (TACC)
Affiliations: University of Alaska – Fairbanks
Funding Agency: NSF
Grant or Allocation Number(s): BIO240041

The science story featured here was enabled by the U.S. National Science Foundation’s ACCESS program, which is supported by National Science Foundation grants #2138259, #2138286, #2138307, #2137603, and #2138296.